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                                                              Tuesday 26th July 2011



BASE METALS European Morning View



Metals put debt issues aside and rally as the dollar slides



By William Adams - Head of Research



The metals opened on a weaker footing on Monday following weakness in Asia, but the

absence of follow through selling meant they closed down by an average of just 0.3 percent,

having at one stage been down by an average of 1.2 percent. Dollar weakness may well have

helped underpin prices, as no doubt did a lack of follow through weakness in equities. Although

we doubt there will be any default by the US, we do feel that the whole palaver is highlighting

how serious the US debt situation is and that might keep US debt in focus and on the agenda

for some time now.



The lack of follow through weakness in Europe and the US yesterday enabled Asia to rebound

this morning and that has set a firmer tone across the markets. So too has the considerably

weaker dollar.



The base metals are up an average of 1.1 percent with all the metals up between 0.9 percent

and 1.2 percent. Copper is up 1.1 percent at $9,790, aluminium is up 1 percent at $2,642 and

zinc is up 1.1 percent at $2,492. Volumes have picked up to 5,460 lots as of 07:15 BST, with

2,421 lots of copper and 1,801 lots of aluminium traded. So stronger prices on better volume,

bodes well – although we would say the weaker dollar has been the driver and that is the result

of a far from bullish development – notably the stalemate over US sovereign debt.



The dollar index is down at 73.67 and that is the weakest since 7th & 8th June when the low

reached 73.50. The euro is at 1.4485, the pound is last at 1.6335, the aussie is very strong at

1.0922 as is the yen at 78.06. Gold and silver are strong too at $1,615 and $40.46.



Equities – the Dow closed down 0.7 percent, but Asia is upbeat with the Nikkei up 0.5 percent,

the Hang Seng is up 1 percent, the MSCI Asia Apex was up 1.3 percent, although China’s CSI

was up only 0.2 percent. Generally better than expected earning boosted Asia markets,

although we note China hardly bounced after its heavy falls yesterday – so that needs watching.



In Shanghai the October contracts are strong with average gains of 0.9 percent. Aluminium

leads the advance with a 1.4 percent gain to Rmb 17,905, copper is up 1.1 percent at Rmb

72,480, zinc is up 0.6 percent at Rmb 18,770 and lead is up 0.5 percent at Rmb 17,650.



Spot copper in Changjiang has climbed less than the futures, it is up 0.5 percent at Rmb

71,650-71,900, so remains in contango and the LME/Shanghai arb has deteriorated further

moving out to negative $225/tonne.



The economic agenda picks up again today, German GfK consumer confidence slipped slightly,

while Japanese price index fell less than expected. Later we get UK GDP, which is expected to

come in at 0.2 percent and then US house prices, new home sales, consumer confidence and

Richmond manufacturing index, see table on right for more details.


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Despite all the bad news the base metals look encouragingly buoyant and after the pauses seen

at the end of last week and yesterday, prices look eager to extend their gains. Leading the

advance is aluminium, although it generally has been one of the weaker metals in recent

months, but all the metals look well placed to tackle overhead resistance and if successful then

further up legs seem likely to follow.



However, given the precarious situation over sovereign debt and the recent low levels of

manufacturing PMI (note how Chinese equities have not rebounded much today), we would

have to question whether now is the right time to be too bullish on industrial metals and

equities.



              LME Overnight Performance



              7:15 AM +/-          +/- %        Lots



Cu                9788     109.25        1.1%        2421



Al                2640         25        1.0%        1801



Ni               24075        229        1.0%         153



Zn                2492         27        1.1%         923



Pb                2710         30        1.1%         131



Sn               28400        249        0.9%           31



Steel Med          594           0       0.0%



                                      Economic Agenda



Time         Country    Data                                  ACTUAL      Expected  Previous



12:50am      Japan                                            -0.7%       -0.9%      -0.9%

                       CSPI y/y



7:00am       Eu                                               5.4         5.6        5.5

                       GfK German Consumer Climate



9:30am       UK                                                          0.2%        0.5%

                       Prelim GDP q/q



9:30am       UK                                                          0.9%        0.9%

                       Index of Services 3m/3m



2:00pm       US                                                          -4.6%       -4.0%

                       S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y



3:00pm       US                                                          57.1        58.5

                       CB Consumer Confidence



3:00pm       US                                                          321K        319K

                       New Home Sales

                                                                                    3

3:00pm       US                                                          5

                       Richmond Manufacturing Index


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